What is the current status. Forum

What is your perspective of current Treasure Valley new consition market condition? I find "pockets" within the market. It seems that there is a group of builders who are selling homes (Kub, Flynner for example) and others who are bleeding (Crestwood for example). What have you heard?

Trey Langford

Posted by tlangford at 5/31/2008 12:46:00 PM
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Comments (4)
Re:Market Check
Considering, the market is doing well, and we will all look back at the Spring of 2008 as a high point in sales 2 years from now
Posted by on 5/31/2008 9:06 AM
Re:Market Check
I disagree. Looking at the statistics over the last five years and watching our business statistics since 1993, we are in a corrective mode this Spring. With Spring 03 showing roughly 800 permits and then the boom beyond that. Spring of 07 busts by 50% back to 800 permits and now we are half of that.

I think we may see a smaller percentage increase next year, as we maintain corrective, however the percentage expected growth for the valley to roughly 1 million by 2012 means that we will pull our of the correction much sooner than if we were simply maintaining our population.

Political activity will play a major roles in the perception of the economy as well, at least it always has in the past, therefore I think we will look back on Spring 08 as a corrective measure low point.

Echo Garrett
Triad Distributing NW
Posted by on 5/31/2008 9:28 AM
Re:Market Check
Typical it is the best time right now BS. Typical growth BS...we had it for the last 10 years did it help sales this Spring.

I could throw stats all day, but the most important is inventory...it is increasing and THEIR IS 50% more hidden in REO and foreclosed bank holdings that are not MLS listed. YOU WILL NEVER HIT A BOTTOM WITH parabolic inventory.

Oh, and nice blah blah political activity/ election year...okay DO YOU READ THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT NUMBERS THAT ARE FALLING FASTER THAN IN THE LAST 20yrs into an election. How is the 'perception' of our economy?

It is convenient to say we are at bottom...here is a list of NAR quotes from 2005 till today

1. Theres no question there is a strong demand for housing from a growing population. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

2. For the foreseeable future, the demand for homes will continue to outstrip supply - Al Mansell, NAR President

3. Weve been expecting sales to remain at historically high levels, but this performance underscores the value of housing as an investment and the importance of homeownership in fulfilling the American dream. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

4. We are returning to more balanced markets between home buyers and sellers We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

5. This is part of the market adjustment weve been discussing, with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector. The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level. Overall fundamentals remain solid - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

6. Higher interest rates are slowing home sales, but we see this as another sign of a soft landing for the housing sector which remains at historically high levels. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

After five years of booming sales, we are now experiencing normal market conditions across most of the country most owners can expect steadier gains in home values for the foreseeable future. - Thomas M. Stevens, NAR President

7. Over the last three months home sales have held in a narrow range, easing to a level that is near our annual projection, which tells us the market is stabilizing - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

8. Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but itll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

9. Existing-home sales stabilized at a sustainable pace in August - NAR

10. the worst is behind us as far as a market correction this is likely the trough for sales. When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, well see the buyers whove been on the sidelines get back into the market - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

11. It looks like were moving beyond the low for the housing cycle last fall, and buyers are responding to historically low interest rates and competitive pricing by home sellers. In addition, a tightening inventory of homes on the market is supporting prices. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

12. Fundamentals have improved in the housing market and buyers see a window now with historically-low mortgage interest rates and competitive pricing by sellers, - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

13. We also may be seeing some losses as a result of the subprime fallout. However, this is masking improved fundamentals in the housing market, with lower mortgage interest rates and motivated sellers. - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist

14. Buyers whove been on the sidelines may want to take a closer look at current conditions in their area if they wait for sales to rise, their choices and negotiating position wont be as good as they are now. - Pat V. Combs, NAR President

15. The rise in sales and prices in the Northeast region on a fairly consistent basis in recent months is promising because this was the first region that underwent sales and price weakness after the boom. Now, it appears that it will be the first region to climb back, indicating that other regions could follow a similar path. - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

16. The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market, including a significant rise in jumbo loan rates, resulted in a fairly high number of postponed or cancelled salesOnce we get through these disruptions, well get a better sense of where the actual market is in late fall as conditions begin to normalize, - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

17. Existing-Home Sales Rise in November, Market Likely Stabilizing - NAR

18. Home sales remain weak despite improved affordability conditions in many parts of the country, but we could get a quick boost to the market if loan limits are raised in combination with the bold cut in the Fed funds rate, - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

19. Existing-Home Sales to Stablize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2008 - NAR
Posted by on 6/1/2008 3:02 AM
Re:Market Check
Oh, and I had called for a T-Bill correction back in Feb-Mar...well according to Bloomie "stunning ramp-up in yields.'' ..

We broke a significant channel on the 30yr and are headed to 4.4 in the next 2 months.

All the BS bailout talk, the FED taking crap on its books and run away inflation HAVE KILLED THE DOLLAR. Our country is subprime...and the recent lack of demand in out T auctions shows that...

SO CALL THE BOTTOM AGAIN IF YOU MUST, but you will have rapidly rising rates in an environment of tight lending standards...

Posted by on 6/1/2008 3:07 AM


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