2022 Boise Idaho Real Estate Blog

A statistical analysis of pricing a home for sale

Main Meridian Homes for Sale

It is really interesting listing to different people try to justify their price of their home these days. I just did a quick test for my own house and came up with a bunch of different answers all based on “statistical analysis”.

My home is 2,980 sq. ft. in Boise with four bedrooms and three full baths on an 8,000 sq. ft. lot.
I pulled up all the homes that homes have sold so far in 2008 in our MLS in Boise which range from 2,800 sq. ft. to 3,200 sq. ft. I loved the Average List Price of $364,335. I would donate thousands to charity if I could sell my house for that! Everyone says the market is horrible, yet 99 homes have successfully completed this year in this range alone! I am feeling overconfident right now.
Wait, the median price (where as many homes selling above that price as there are below) is down to $339,900. I consider myself a “realist” so if my house was average, I would still be extremely content to sell for $339,900!
Wait, why is the median sold prices for homes with this exact criteria that have closed this year only $315,000? Oh, I see, eight of the 99 houses elected not to report the selling price due to discounts and concessions at closing. That kind of distorts the numbers. I am glad they just changed the laws so we can’t cop out and not do that any more! But what is the right number?
I forgot to take the age of my home into consideration so when I adjust for homes that are 20 – 50 years old, the median sales price dropped to $265,500. My house has already dropped nearly $100,000 in value and I am still doing my research. My confidence is fading quickly! Better do more research before I post this blog!
Next, I factor in my home only has a two car garage. I sure am glad I have this basement on these hot summer days; so I include that criteria too. Since my area of town isn’t as pricy as the North End or Eagle, I exclude all the ones that aren’t in west Boise. I refresh the magic computer and come up with a revised estimate of $229,000.
Since I have done my homework and know the facts about what homes “like mine” have sold for this year; it is finally time to compare how it looks to the next potential homeowner. The median price of homes for sale meeting my revised final criteria is $244,900 and one is listed for $299,900. Then, I would need to compare my home with each of the others prior to putting mine up for sale to see which offers the best value. I would need to look at even more adjustments to determine upgrades, deferred maintenance, landscaping, curb appeal, location, etc. Then I would finally be ready to “begin” marketing my house! Based on the market, my motivation, the condition of my home, etc,. I would adjust my house up to $249,900 today knowing what I do about the homes that mine would compete with.
Beware of the agent that would have just given you a quick answer based on sq. ft. for your home, because if I had done that based on the first  analysis, I would price my own home at least $115,000 too high! Even if I was insistent on listing at the original average list price of $364,335, I would have agents lining up to list my house albeit not a reality that it would ever sell for it in this market. Some agents won’t tell their clients what they need to hear so they end up listing homes for unreal prices. Other agents know the price is unreal, but hope they can spin off buyers that are more realistic.
When it is time to buy or sell your next home, make sure your agent takes the time to look at it from all the angles because as you could see, the same house can lead you to the wrong conclusion and yet appear to be “proven” through incomplete research.


Jim Paulson, CRS, GRI, EPRO; Broker/Owner - Progressive Realty Corporation


Posted by Jim Paulson at 8/2/2008 9:06:00 AM

Client Care



Let's get started