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Treasure Valley Market Report Main Idaho Real Estate Insights
When will it be normal?

Hey everyone, wanted to let you know the next report is being developed and we have some great information to share. I wondered if you have anything your would to see?

Report should be out in the next three weeks but hopefully less than two. Here is the first revolation I found. If you analyze the last 10 years it looks like the boom started in 2004. If you look at 1998 to 2003 we would see an Boise home value appreciation rate of about 5.45%. Had that trend stayed normal, meaning we did not have the spike from 2004 to 2006 and carried that trend line to today you would see that current prices are below the trend line. Are we at the bottom? It's damn close I say. Also if the market were 'normal' we would only have four months of inventory,at current Boise real estate market conditions we have 11 months real estate inventory.

 
Posted by tlangford at 2/21/2009 2:29:00 PM
Comments (2)
Re:Treasure Valley Market Report
Wages did not grow at near 5.45% and the mathematics of compounding mean housing cannot rise at a rate faster or...well google compounding interest if you don't.

Very interested in seeing the report!

I really really would love for you to be right on this bottom Trey. Unfortunatley, the gov meddling here and abroad has alost ensured that we are in for years of much worse times. The problem has been allowed to get much bigger than just bad home loans. Credit probelms now threaten countries! When history writes about this time and the 'housing issue' the biggest lesson will not be subprime, it will be that trying to keep asset prices at unsustainable levels brought down the world economy...I could tell you stories from China now...wow, riots in Ireland outside my buddies bank, Eastern Europe ...on and on. Stay safe
Posted by on 2/23/2009 3:45 PM
Re:Treasure Valley Market Report
Trey, I will bookmark your bottom call for future reference. Last call I found for you was a fall 2008 price rebound, ...lets see how I am doing...

Posted by emdeplam on 9/4/2008 1:20 AM

Predictions for Boise housing-
Market bottom ~2010 Winter (too early to tell but probably to early)
Inventory peak ~2010 Winter (too early to tell but probably too early)
2010 median Boise home price ~130K (slight overcorrection is normal) (ON TRACK)
Minimum insurable down to get FRE/FNM purchaseable- 10%- Spring 2009 (DONE-unless Eric says otherwise)
1 local Valley bank BK by Spring 2009 (NOT YET but birdy says soon)
10 more national banks BK by end of 2008 (YTD cum 20) (We are at 12 or 13 now I think)
Avg 30 yr rates 7% 2009 H1, 8 % 2009 H2 (WAY WRONG...discounted global $ flight to safety and quant easing)
2009 Boise/Ada unemployemnt rate >5% (NAILED)
Migration into valley positive but slowing 2009 & 2010 (NAILED as reported by the statesman...lowest migration in a while)
Boise Paper Co and Boise Building supplies BK 2009 (give her time...still early in '09)
HP and Micron job loses >500 2009 (not including 2008 loses) (EASY!)
SuperValue exits Boise 2009 (Not sure but bg Albertsons announcemnts out...should be in the bag)
USD 1.30 versus Euro 2009 mid (Wow you could have made big $$$ of this call)
S&P 500- 950 2009, DJIA- 130 when the call was made so I got the direction right)

Near-term prediction...spring will bring a flood of further inventory to the markets...sales volume will rise (hey its spring) but prices will get wacked! I can't tell you how many people I know are holding on for a price rebound...lots of inventory on the sidelines, but the economy will make more and more forced sellers of us all.

Top new predicitons:
Apartment vacancy rate to clear 12.5% at end of '09 (good luk landlords)
Average rents down -10% by end of year
Idaho declared 'problem state' no mortgage insurance with less than 30% down by end of year
Commercial RE implodes...vacancy up 20% yr/yr rents down 10-15% yryr
Remodelling jumps, especially green stuff based on future tax incentives
Major scandal with recent construction being radioactive
Posted by on 2/23/2009 4:57 PM

 

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