2019 Idaho Real Estate Blog

The next evolution of Idaho Real estate and new homes for sale- Main Idaho Real Estate Insights
Idaho Real Estate is shifting again- I am making a prediction.

The problem we are recovering from was demand increased so dramatically it drove appreciation to an unsustainable level. In the interim developers were creating new communities to meet the demand and buidlers were aligning themselves with lots so they were not locked out of the market.

One of the popular marketing trends in 2005 was builder teams. Subdivisions were exclusive to certain builders and the consumer was forced to select a builder from the building team. Recently, due to real estate market conditions many lots became avaialble and no one was buying lots including builders because there was no demand and builder teams disappeared.

My prediction is the next shift is going to be builder teams again. As builders are able to purchase lots at prices less than they could develop lots for, they are going to start locking up lots again. It is already happening. I know of several builders that are using bulk lot prices to create a competitive edge. The price and value they can build for compared to otheres who are buying one lot at a time is thousands of dollars difference.

For a while at least we are going to see subdivisions that are good subdivisions but fallen to market conditions, being acquired by larger builders who can afford to lock themselves into great lot prices.

This will be a great opportunity for the consumer who wants a new home but can't afford a premium lot price. These builders will be a ble to build at prioes that compete with distressed property as well.

Dream big in 2009,

Trey Langford

Posted by tlangford at 8/30/2009 10:29:00 PM
Comments (1)
Re:The next evolution of Idaho Real estate and new homes for sale-
I agree but I think those buying lots and holding are years early.

Anyone who looks at real estate history knows it never bounces back quickly. I think I have convinced you we had a big bubble and a quick look at how RE bubbles played out in Cali, Fl, Japan etc shows a big dump fallowed by a slow bleed for 10 years.

Detroit is actually a interesting model, (a bit extreme but..) they have experience with a huge supply demand imbalance and have had home price less then lot development for some time. Run a search on Detroit homes under $50K.

While we are not Detroit we have a huge supply problem still. Not just with listed inventory but bank owned shadow inventory and owers just waiting for the 'turn'. If you do n't believe me look at rental rates and vacancy...there is little demand for housing. I would love to plot residential sq ft versus the population because I think you would clearly see us 20-25% higher than a normal period.

Heres my prediction:
Home and rental occupancy rates in TV continue to fall for 2 years
Pricies are flat thru fall and then decline again at a slow rate for the next 4 years and stay flat (decline in real terms) for 6 years
Unemployment increases thru 2010 and Boise breaks 10% by year end
Mcmansion subdivisions which were built in the last 4 years increasingly decline, with more crime, high vacancy,
Increasingly demand grows best in near city and rural areas with people either wanting to be close to jobs or be self suficient/away from city problems...suburbs struggle and especially large houses which cost too much to maintain
Boise inmigration slows as jobs are as few as other places and coastal migration seeks low cost areas as Boise has become less affordable and their costal equity is lower
Icreasingly homeowners rent rooms and kids stay home squeezing demand further while builders continue to build although at lower rates
Default rates of buyers from 2008 and 2009 'post bubble' are much higher than expected in the segment putting down less than 20% (most)

To me this is still time to deleverage personally (although I havent had debt in years) minimize expenses and preserve capital. Great bargins and fantastic returns await those with cash, however IMHO that time is not now.
Posted by on 8/31/2009 1:48 AM

Michelle Penick, Build Idaho Client Real Estate Services

Michelle Penick

Client Care Team
208.629.0217 | Info@BuildIdaho.com

Contact Agent
<August 2019>
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
June 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
October 2005
Current Weblogs
There are no blogs in this Group.
★★★★★ 5 stars - "Our experience with Full Sail/ Build Idaho was great from start to finish! "

Ask a Question | Schedule a Tour | Make an offer

*Full Name:*Phone Number:*Email Address:
*I'm looking for:MessageSource