2022 Boise Idaho Real Estate Blog

Election Hangover: What the Results mean for the Boise Housing Market

Main Boise Housing and Real Estate News

On Wednesday, many of my friends, colleagues, and clients asked me how (or if) the real estate market will change as a result of the elections. Most who asked were surprised and frustrated by the results of the election--a state I like to refer to as an election hangover. No matter whom they voted for, I think everyone had a bit of an election hangover, thanks to the massive amount of media dedicated to this important event. I can?t imagine what it is like to live in Ohio, with 24/7 election media in your face. So let me get to the question at hand: Do I think the housing market will suffer with the election results? Over the last 4 year I have had many tell me that if Obama was re-elected, they would not make any major purchases (like a home) or take any more chances with their businesses or investments because they were convinced the economy would come to a screeching halt.

On Wednesday, many of my friends, colleagues, and clients asked me how (or if) the real estate market will change as a result of the elections. Most who asked were surprised and frustrated by the results of the election--a state I like to refer to as an election hangover. No matter whom they voted for, I think everyone had a bit of an election hangover, thanks to the massive amount of media dedicated to this important event. I can’t imagine what it is like to live in Ohio, with 24/7 election media in your face.

So let me get to the question at hand: Do I think the housing market will suffer with the election results?

Over the last 4 year I have had many  tell me that if Obama was re-elected, they would not make any major purchases (like a home) or take any more chances with their businesses or investments because they were convinced the economy would come to a screeching halt.

The funny thing is, I remember after George W. Bush was reelected, the number of people in disbelief that he was voted in a second time and extremely worried where the country was heading. However, after that election, most people who didn’t vote for Bush eventually got on with their lives, careers and ambitions.

America has shown that it is very resilient, and does well at keeping on, even when times are tough. Yes, the country still has huge problems to deal with, most notably the growing debt crisis. But there have always been and always will be different crises affecting our nation. How quickly or how effectively we deal with them has a lot to do with whom we elect as leaders, but history has shown we do get through them.

It is no secret that I typically look for the positive in any situation; hence most people label me an optimist. It is not hard to obtain that label when, in comparison, media and others giving opinions often look for the negatives in any situation, sadly because it is more interesting and captivating.

About a year ago, I made it very public that my local real estate market--Boise, Idaho--was showing all the signs that it was going to have a double-digit price increase in 2012. Nearly 99% of the reaction I got was that I was being overly optimistic and out of my mind to think we would see an increase of more than 3-4% in home prices.

Halfway through the year, real estate agents in Boise started seeing firsthand that a double-digit price increase for the local market was not only likely, but probable.

From my experience and observations with the housing market, I feel it tends to move like a big ship at sea. It takes a lot for the ship to change direction; it is no skiff that can turn on a dime. Changes in the housing market are slower and more predictable than other markets. People often talk about the housing bubble and how when it burst, it was fast and painful. It was painful, but it wasn’t fast. In the Boise real estate market during the "bubble period," house prices increased 50% in a 2-year period, then took close to 5 years to lose those gains. Meaning the bubble didn’t burst...it got a leak.

Now we see prices in the Boise market moving back in a positive direction. This is true nationally for over 90% of the local markets. Most places are seeing a small improvement over last year, 1-5% is typical, with a few places like Boise and Phoenix which have seen 10-20+% price increases over last year.

The point is that the ship has already turned, and it changed direction well before the election results were in. The housing market is being fueled by its extreme affordability and now the threat that affordability will soon go away if home prices continue to rise. The herd mentality is already in effect. I predict we’ll see home price gains in the U.S. for the next 4 years, and I was predicting that no matter who was elected President.

 
Posted by MikeT at 11/9/2012 6:21:00 PM

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