2019 Idaho Real Estate Blog

Boise Idaho Real Estate Report: 2013 Year End Conclusions Main Idaho Real Estate Insights

For 6 years, whenever I spoke at seminars or met for roundables about the industry, the topic always hovered around "When will it be normal again?"

For the first time since 2005, it has been a normal year. From 2005 and into 2006 we say about 10k permits, 5 times what would be considered normal. We saw outrageous pricing based on what is affordable in the area. We say everyone that could become a builder. And we saw outrageous business practices.

So what does normal look like? Over the past 12 months, Boise has seen between 2k and 2.5k building permits, that is normal based on in-migration trends and averages over the years. While inventory started out low it is back up to normal numbers. While it would be hard to determine if values are high or low, inventory is moving steadily which is an indicator that the market is in line.

2014 is going to be the first year in a long time that we will see the results of development. Several communities are now available and several more will come on line in the spring with many more ready to come to market thereafter. While it would be logical that this large increase in supply would lower lot prices, don't expect it. Demand is still strong and there are many builders on the sidelines looking for opportunity. Be aware that market values still control pricing. Even if someone is willing to pay more, a buyer has to get a loan approved and I don't know of a bank willing to allow a crazy home loan at this point.

At the peak of the market there were over 770 builders who pulled permits and this year it looks like there will be just  over 200 builders who have pulled permits. I am still amazed that people buy a home from a no name builder, but they do?

2014 is going to be very strong for Boise, Idaho. There are more coming and steadily! Who are they?

  1. They are retired or semi-retired
    • They are following family. Especially grand-parents.
    • They have been here before, probably several times, and really like it here. Between the culture and outdoor lifestyle, it is a happy place to be.
  2. They are Boomerangs
    • They grew up and have fond memories
    • They went away and found they truly appreciate the Boise lifestyle, atmosphere and people.
    • They did not want to raise their kids where they were for reasons.
  3. They don't need to live in a major metro.
    • They are able to tele-commute
    • They are able to work here and/ or travel from here
    • They are a home-based business

While the city of Boise and surrounding areas may want manufacturing jobs to come to town, that is not who is coming here.

Home values will rise but gradually. While the demand is strong, inventory and bank loans will help keep home values in check.

Trey Langford
Build Idaho, Founder

 
Posted by tlangford at 12/16/2013 1:28:00 PM
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