Boise Idaho Reak Estate Insights- 2014 Main Idaho Real Estate Insights

2013 may have been the first "Normal" year in new construction in a decade but what are the variables to watch out for in 2014? It's going to be dirty.

Idaho Building Lots and New Developments

In 2013, there were approximately 3,600 building permits, up 600 from 2012. This is the first time since we can remember it has been 'normal'.

There are three factors that will influence the market in 2014.

  1. Building Lots.
    There have not been many new subdivisions since 2006. There have been several phases of existing communities and a couple of ones that were already in pipeline but nothing new in a long time. Part of this was market transitional. When lot prices were dropping, no one developped. For quite a while lots were priced below what it would cost to develop. Now the market has recovered and developers are back. Late 2013, Mace River Ranch, Carmel, Foxtail, Redtail, Tianna Park and few others launched but this spring expect to see many more. The acclaimed M3 project Spring Valley, Fall Creek, Bellano Creek, Riverwalk, Renovare, East Valley and other large developments will evolve.
    While the laws of economics would tell us this suppyu will lower lot prices, don't expect it.
  2. Builder Teams
    Most every subdivision is now comprised of a team of builders which means that home buyers are confined in how they choose. If they fall in love with a builder, they have to choose from the communities they are part of, if any. OR they fall in love with a community and choose one of the builders?
    While this may not be an optimal buying situation for home buyers it does create security for all parties. Developers can depend on the builders to provide a level of quality and builders understand the expectations. If any one can build there, who knows what you may get?

    One interesting dynamic is that for months now, many builders have been locked out due to availability of lots.
    Will these lots allow for more builders to get in the game? Yes.
    Will the competition help stipend home value appreciation? No
  3. Boise Idaho In-Migration
    They are coming and there is no end in sight. People are always surprised at the growth but if you understand the people it may make more sense. I have found people coming here have several consistent traits.
    • They already have family here
    • They have visited several times or more and love it here
    • They want to escape to here from the orientation of their current residents> Let's face it Boise is a very family oriented place.

      One thing to consider is that in 2011 and 2012 there was about 10k people net in-migartion and in 2015 it is expected to double!

What does 2014 look like? I am predicting home values will rise because demand is so strong even with the numerous lots coming on board but home loan requirements will help keep them from running up fast.

Posted by tlangford at 1/10/2014 2:00:00 PM
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Michelle Penick, Boise Idaho Real Estate Agent

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